Property values across New Zealand continued to stabilise in April, with the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) recording a modest 0.1% monthly rise nationally, the third consecutive monthly increase.
The latest figures highlight a market that is proving more resilient than many expected, despite subdued sales activity, elevated listings, ongoing global uncertainty and signs that mortgage rates could begin edging higher again.
New Zealand’s median property value now sits at $809,101, up 0.6% since January, although still 16.8% below the market peak reached in early 2022.
LJ Hooker Head of Research Mathew Tiller said the latest data reinforces the idea that the property market is no longer in sharp decline, but any recovery remains gradual and uneven.
“The market is continuing to search for direction,” Tiller said.
“While we have now seen three consecutive months of small value increases nationally, the gains are still modest and conditions remain highly varied depending on location and buyer confidence.”
A market balancing competing forces
Tiller said the resilience shown in recent months is notable given the number of pressures still facing households and the wider economy.
“Sales volumes have remained softer than expected this year, listings are still elevated in many areas and economic uncertainty continues to influence buyer sentiment,” he said.
“On top of that, global instability and expectations of rising mortgage rates would normally place additional downward pressure on property values, so the fact prices have remained relatively stable is encouraging.”
However, Tiller said the market is still firmly favouring buyers in many parts of the country.
“Buyers continue to have choice, time to complete due diligence and greater negotiating power than we saw during the peak years of the market. That is helping keep activity steady without creating any significant upward pressure on prices.”
Regional markets continue to outperform
April’s figures once again highlighted stronger performance across several regional and provincial markets.
Dunedin led the main centres with a 0.8% rise in values during April, while Christchurch and Tauranga both increased 0.4%. Hamilton also recorded a 0.3% lift.
By comparison, Auckland and Wellington remained softer, both recording minor 0.1% declines overall.
Tiller said affordability and local economic conditions are continuing to support many regional centres.
“Regional New Zealand has generally shown stronger resilience over the past year, particularly in areas benefiting from agriculture, tourism and export activity,” he said.
“More accessible price points are also continuing to attract both owner occupiers and investors looking for value outside the larger metro centres.”
Whangārei recorded one of the stronger regional results in April with a 0.9% increase, while most key regional centres outside the main cities also posted modest gains.
Auckland remains mixed
Auckland’s overall result remained broadly flat in April, although conditions varied significantly between submarkets.
Papakura and the North Shore both edged higher by 0.1%, while Rodney and Manukau were steady. Franklin slipped 0.1%, Auckland City declined 0.2% and Waitākere recorded a 0.4% fall.
Tiller said Auckland continues to show signs of stabilisation, although momentum remains inconsistent.
“There are certainly pockets of Auckland where values appear to be finding a floor, particularly as affordability has improved compared to recent years,” he said.
“But the data remains patchy and buyers are still approaching the market carefully. Overall, Auckland remains a purchaser’s market.”
Tiller said first-home buyers are continuing to benefit from current conditions across the city.
“With prices sitting well below previous peaks in many areas, and stock levels remaining relatively healthy, first-home buyers continue to have opportunities that simply were not available several years ago.”
Wellington still subdued
Wellington also remains one of the softer housing markets nationally, although some parts of the region are beginning to stabilise.
Kāpiti Coast edged up 0.1% in April while Porirua held steady. Wellington City, Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt all recorded slight declines.
Tiller said affordability improvements are helping bring more first-home buyers into the Wellington market.
“Wellington has experienced some of the largest value declines over recent years, which has created opportunities for buyers who may previously have been priced out,” he said.
“First-home buyer participation remains very strong across the region, particularly as lower prices and easing lending conditions improve accessibility.”
However, Tiller said economic uncertainty and political factors are likely to keep confidence subdued in the short term.
“Public sector pressures, employment concerns and election uncertainty are all contributing to a more cautious outlook in Wellington.”
Interest rates remain a key factor
Looking ahead, Tiller said inflation and interest rate expectations are likely to remain the biggest influence on market activity through the second half of 2026.
“There is increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank may need to lift the Official Cash Rate again sooner than previously expected if inflation pressures persist,” he said.
“That would likely place upward pressure on mortgage rates and could slow buyer activity further.”
Tiller said any recovery in property values is likely to remain restrained while households continue navigating economic uncertainty.
“The market has shown resilience so far this year, but it would not take much for conditions to flatten again, particularly through winter.”
Recovery likely to remain gradual
Despite the cautious outlook, Tiller said current conditions still present opportunities for buyers who are financially secure and taking a long-term view.
“For buyers who have stable employment and finance in place, this remains a market where there is choice and room to negotiate,” he said.
“At the same time, sellers who price realistically and present properties well are still achieving solid results.”
Tiller said the broader market is likely to remain in a holding pattern for much of 2026.
“We are no longer seeing the broad declines that defined the past few years, but equally there are few signs of rapid growth returning anytime soon,” he said.
“The most likely scenario remains a slow and uneven recovery, with different regions and buyer segments moving at different speeds.”
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