As autumn arrives, the property market is undergoing a shift, mirroring the seasonal change. After months of uncertainty following property value corrections, confidence is cautiously returning, buoyed by lower interest rates and improving economic conditions.
Data from CoreLogic and realestate.co.nz reveals a market in recovery, though tempered by high stock levels and selective buyers. Rather than racing toward a boom, the market is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth.
“March has shown us a market that’s finding its feet again. Lower interest rates are opening doors, and vendors are stepping back in, but it’s still a buyer’s market with plenty of choice,” LJ Hooker Head of Network NZ Campbell Dunoon said.
Key market statistics
- National property values (CoreLogic): Up 0.5% in March, reaching $812,195—the highest since June 2024.
- National average asking price (realestate.co.nz): $851,090, down 4.7% year-on-year.
- Stock levels: A decade-high of 36,870 properties, up 10.9% from March 2024.
- New listings: Increased 5.0% year-on-year to 12,029, with 13 of 19 regions seeing growth.
- Sales pace: Properties sold faster in March than in February, spending less time on the market.
A market on the mend
CoreLogic’s Home Value Index (HVI) recorded a 0.5% rise in March, following a 0.4% increase in February—the strongest monthly gain since January 2024.
“It took time for the drop in mortgage rates since mid-2024 to lift house prices, especially with the economy struggling and household confidence low. Now that those delays have passed and the economy is showing signs of improvement, we’re seeing confidence return to the property market,” Dunoon said.
Realestate.co.nz data supports this, showing signs of recovery but no rapid acceleration. The national average asking price of $851,090 reflects stability, up 0.8% from February, despite a 4.7% decline from March 2024.
“We’re not seeing a strong market yet, but there’s quiet momentum building as 2025 moves forward,” Dunoon said.
Regional breakdown
Auckland
Auckland led the main centres with a 0.6% rise in property values, with North Shore up 0.9% and Papakura at 0.8%.
“There’s been a noticeable change in sentiment across Auckland for a few months now, and it’s starting to show in the numbers. Affordability challenges remain, but the uptick suggests renewed interest,” Dunoon said.
Wellington
Wellington saw a modest 0.3% increase, with Kapiti Coast jumping 1.4%, though Upper Hutt dipped 0.2%.
Christchurch
Christchurch outperformed with a 0.8% rise, driven by steady demand and high stock levels that continue to favour buyers.
Hamilton
Hamilton posted a 0.9% increase, reflecting strong regional growth.
Dunedin & Tauranga
Dunedin (-0.1%) and Tauranga (0.0%) remained subdued, lagging behind the broader market trend.
Provincial markets
Whanganui led regional growth with a 0.8% rise, while Nelson saw a slight 0.1% dip. Gisborne topped new listings growth at 23.8% year-on-year.
“We’re likely to see a modest recovery in values across regional markets this year,” Dunoon said.
“Lower interest rates are opening doors for buyers, and vendors are stepping back in with stock levels rising.
“That said, it’s still a buyer’s market—there’s plenty of choice. We’re not racing into a boom, which is positive for stability. High listings and modest price growth mean buyers can be selective, while sellers need to price realistically to meet the market.”
Looking ahead
March’s data suggests a gradual recovery, with CoreLogic forecasting a 5% rise in national values over the year, moderated by debt-to-income caps.
The Reserve Bank’s OCR decision on April 9 could influence this trajectory. A further cut might accelerate value growth by lowering interest rates, enhancing affordability, and boosting buyer activity.
“Given past cycles, this year’s expected growth is relatively restrained. For buyers, the market offers choice and leverage, though hotspots like Auckland remain competitive.
“For sellers, confidence is returning, but pricing must align with a market rich in options. It’s not about racing to the top—it’s about laying a strong foundation for what’s next,” Dunoon said.
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