The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut the official cash rate by 0.5 basis points, bringing it down to 4.25 percent. This is the third consecutive rate cut, signalling an improvement in economic conditions.
LJ Hooker Group Head of Network NZ Campbell Dunoon welcomed the move.
"The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25 percent sends a strong signal to the property market. With this being the last OCR announcement until mid-February 2025, we expect many borrowers on floating rates to take this opportunity to secure fixed-term rates, especially as some banks have already moved early to adjust their offerings.
"For new borrowers, the competitive environment among lenders is likely to intensify, creating more favourable conditions for those entering the market. Any relief to borrowers is welcomed and reinforces the broader sentiment that 2024 has been a year of transition.
"Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate greater stability and renewed optimism in the real estate market. Regional areas have shown early signs of recovery, and now we’re seeing similar momentum in major centres like Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch as buyer activity picks up.
"First home buyers have been particularly active, with recent CoreLogic data showing they now account for 27 percent of the market. This highlights growing confidence that the market has turned a corner. As affordability improves, we expect this trend to strengthen further.
"For those sitting on the fence, today’s OCR decision should provide confidence to reengage in property—whether it’s relocating, upsizing, or investing.
"On a larger scale, we’ve also noticed an increase in interest from high-net-worth expats returning to New Zealand. Many are drawn back by a combination of factors, including high property taxes overseas and potential global shifts, such as recent election outcomes.
"This optimism is mirrored in ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey, which revealed a marked increase in people believing it’s a good time to buy and expecting house prices to rise in 2025. The survey also showed 57 percent of respondents anticipate further interest rate declines, the highest rate of such expectations since the survey began in 1996.
"From a historical perspective, the OCR remains low compared to past peaks. During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the OCR reached 8.25 percent and stayed there for 13 months before declining rapidly to 2.5 percent within 10 months. Property market recoveries also tend to take longer than downturns. CoreLogic data shows that after the GFC, property values dropped by 10 percent in a year but required three years to recover, during which sustainable growth was observed.
"At present, CoreLogic data highlights that property values are approximately 18 percent below the post-COVID peak of November 2021 but remain 16 percent higher than pre-COVID levels from March 2020. While the market has faced challenges, there are clear signs we’ve reached the bottom, and some areas are already in recovery.
"As we move into 2025, we anticipate market stabilisation in the first half and opportunities for growth in the latter half. Momentum is already building, and LJ Hooker is gearing up for a busier year ahead."
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